The revolving door · retention maths
The retention number that sounds great. And isn't.
Industry-average monthly retention is 93.8%. Most operators look at that number and feel fine. Here's why they shouldn't.
What it sounds like
0%
monthly retention — "we're keeping nearly everyone, right?"
→
What it actually is
0%
lost in 12 months. You replace more than half your entire membership every single year.
The maths: A 6.2% monthly loss doesn't stay at 6.2%. It compounds, because next month's 6.2% comes off what's left.
(0.938)12 = 0.47 — you keep 47%, lose 53%
That's how "93.8% sounds fine" becomes "half your members are gone by Christmas."
Retention is the whole business. Every point you add compounds 12 times a year. Moving from 93.8% to 96.5% retention — less than 3 points — cuts your annual loss from 53% to 35%. Nothing else in the business moves the numbers like this.
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